UK: 2023 Shows Dip in Sales… Especially for EVs

[mzflorida]

Sadly, I don’t think that EVs offer much help for the environment. I think they are an improvement over ICE, but not a significant enough step, and absolutely not an answer for sustainability. We cannot adopt EVs and think for a second that we have solved our transportation environmental impact problems. For that, the best option we have now is everybody walk or ride a bicycle.

The EV has the potential to be very energy efficient, but auto manufacturers in the USA are trending toward large pickup trucks and SUVs, which partially negates the EVs potential to reduce our energy consumption. For example, GM stopped building the energy efficient Bolt (temporarily, I hope) so they could build the Blazer SUV and the Silverado Truck.

I love the EV ownership and driving/riding experience. There are no toxic fumes in the garage, or around the vehicle outside. There is no need to stop to buy fuel (I charge at home), and there’s almost no maintenance required. They’re smooth, quiet, with near instant ”throttle” response from a stop to highway speed. In the car, I find the one-pedal driving option to be a convenient and pleasurable way to operate it. The efficiency is amazing. The car can go about 230 miles on the equivalent energy of 2 gallons of gasoline. As far as evolution in road capable vehicles, EVs are a big step forward.

I don’t tout EVs as planet savers, but I really like the way they work and how little time and money they cost to operate.

Agreed on all points.

 

[mzflorida]

Manufacturers do not want to take risks or lose money. It costs considerable amount of millions to design a new vehicle and build/modify factory to build it. For EV it includes extra parts and the factories to make the batteries and motors. ICE factories are already built so they have huge cost advantage. In most cases any new car carries from 50-80% parts from previous models from the manufacturer. VW has at least 6 models built on the same chassis as the Polo, making the Polo massively cheaper to design and manufacture. VW had to bet the company on the ID3 after the dieselgate or it would have made it in smaller numbers with less investment.
Some manufacturers have taken small steps to test the market. Nissan Leaf for example. Nissan lost tons of money on the quality/lifecycle of the batteries in the first Leafs. Even at double the price of Punto's, Fiat sold the first 500e's at a loss.
Tesla is a special case. Bailed out numerous times by US government and investor groups. They still do not have car that is considered standard or small size (cheaper) in Europe.

Interesting point on reliability. Consumer Reports is reporting that EVs are far less reliable than are ICE vehicles. Not a small survey with 330,000 respondents. Those results show EV owners repot problems at a rate 79% higher than their ICE counterparts.

https://www.consumerreports.org/cars/car-reliability-owner-satisfaction/electric-vehicles-are-less-reliable-than-conventional-cars-a1047214174/

 

[670cc]

Interesting point on reliability. Consumer Reports is reporting that EVs are far less reliable than are ICE vehicles. Not a small survey with 330,000 respondents. Those results show EV owners repot problems at a rate 79% higher than their ICE counterparts.

https://www.consumerreports.org/cars/car-reliability-owner-satisfaction/electric-vehicles-are-less-reliable-than-conventional-cars-a1047214174/

I have lost faith in Consumer Reports and no longer read their articles. Their reporting and advice has very often contradicted my needs and actual experiences. One suspected problem with Consumer Report’s surveys is that, as I understand it, owners are instructed to ignore recalls when factoring in reliability. However, it’s possible that a battery recall, for example, would influence an owner’s reliability opinion, even though the recall was not the result of a failure on that owner’s particular vehicle. The recall simply addressed and prevented a potential failure, and perhaps did so effectively.. My Honda Ridgeline had more recalls than any vehicle I‘ve owned or been a custodian of. While the Ridgeline never actually broke or let me down, the excessive recalls gave me an impression of poor reliability. When I was a Consumer Reports subscriber, in later years I was not invited to fill out surveys, so perhaps not all subscribers are surveyed

One could argue that EVs are in the toddler stage of developement compared to the many years of developement and refinement of ICEVs. Some early glitches might be expected, but are not necessarily inevitable.

The EV reliability topic was bought up on a Chevy Bolt forum, perhaps to compare actual user experience to media reports. While the sample size of 257 is very small, around 97% were satisfied with their electric car reliability. I have nothing else real to go on except that I’m satisfied with my EVs. I have no reliability concerns that would stop me from buying an EV.

 

[mzflorida]

I have lost faith in Consumer Reports and no longer read their articles. Their reporting and advice has very often contradicted my needs and actual experiences. One suspected problem with Consumer Report’s surveys is that, as I understand it, owners are instructed to ignore recalls when factoring in reliability. However, it’s possible that a battery recall, for example, would influence an owner’s reliability opinion, even though the recall was not the result of a failure on that owner’s particular vehicle. The recall simply addressed and prevented a potential failure, and perhaps did so effectively.. My Honda Ridgeline had more recalls than any vehicle I‘ve owned or been a custodian of. While the Ridgeline never actually broke or let me down, the excessive recalls gave me an impression of poor reliability. When I was a Consumer Reports subscriber, in later years I was not invited to fill out surveys, so perhaps not all subscribers are surveyed

One could argue that EVs are in the toddler stage of developement compared to the many years of developement and refinement of ICEVs. Some early glitches might be expected, but are not necessarily inevitable.

The EV reliability topic was bought up on a Chevy Bolt forum, perhaps to compare actual user experience to media reports. While the sample size of 257 is very small, around 97% were satisfied with their electric car reliability. I have nothing else real to go on except that I’m satisfied with my EVs. I have no reliability concerns that would stop me from buying an EV.

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I understand where your reluctance to rely on CR’s testing comes from. But it is being properly constructed, scientifically and statistically. The data they collect from respondents is compared against data they collect from the automotive industry for statistical validation. Not that anyone has to accept their results as statistically valid, they are constructed based on accepted scientific and statistical standards….which there are many. There are lots of Tesla owners here in the neighborhood. There is one for about every 3 or 4 driveways. It’s about 50 50 when I talk to the owners about their experiences. One guy down the block has nothing but problems but loves driving it so much he would drive nothing else. Actually, he bought another one while at the dealership for a battery failure. Reminds me of Jaguar drivers!

https://www.consumerreports.org/cars/car-reliability-owner-satisfaction/consumer-reports-car-reliability-faq-a1099917197/

 

[670cc]

I understand where your reluctance to rely on CR’s testing comes from. But it is being properly constructed, scientifically and statistically. The data they collect from respondents is compared against data they collect from the automotive industry for statistical validation. Not that anyone has to accept their results as statistically valid, they are constructed based on accepted scientific and statistical standards….which there are many. There are lots of Tesla owners here in the neighborhood. There is one for about every 3 or 4 driveways. It’s about 50 50 when I talk to the owners about their experiences. One guy down the block has nothing but problems but loves driving it so much he would drive nothing else. Actually, he bought another one while at the dealership for a battery failure. Reminds me of Jaguar drivers!

https://www.consumerreports.org/cars/car-reliability-owner-satisfaction/consumer-reports-car-reliability-faq-a1099917197/

That sentiment seems common, and maybe affects me as well. The EV experience is so nice, for those that embrace it, that they/we are willing to overlook potential or real problems. The thinking may be, ”Whatever it takes, whatever problems I might have, I’m not going back to an ICEV!” Other people might find an EV a bother or boring, and would gladly give it up. To everyone out there, YMMV.

As far as CR ratings for individual models, I can’t see them anymore since I’m not a paid subscriber. I have no idea how my EV car was rated, but it really doesn’t matter.

 

[mzflorida]

That sentiment seems common, and maybe affects me as well. The EV experience is so nice, for those that embrace it, that they/we are willing to overlook potential or real problems. The thinking may be, ”Whatever it takes, whatever problems I might have, I’m not going back to an ICEV!” Other people might find an EV a bother or boring, and would gladly give it up. To everyone out there, YMMV.

As far as CR ratings for individual models, I can’t see them anymore since I’m not a paid subscriber. I have no idea how my EV car was rated, but it really doesn’t matter.

Yup. Like a motorcycle, if you’re happy when your hind side is in the saddle, that’s all that matters.

 

[lootzyan]

Maybe I didn't read carefully what was said here. But I didn't notice one thing: Would you rely on an EV as your only means of personal transportation today? It's a rhetorical question because I'm asking in general terms, not in individual cases.
In my case, it happened that for many decades I had only one vehicle at a time. For economic reasons, I did not have an additional vehicle that I could use as a substitute when necessary.
For about 50 years, I have been observing progress in implementing EVs in everyday life. Twenty-something years ago, I thought that something was finally starting to happen seriously. What I see today, it's not surprising that most people who would be interested in finally abandoning the ICEV are disappointed. Companies like Tesla will be fine. It's just like the manufacturers of Porsche and Lamborghini. They will still find willing buyers for a long time. In EVs, new types of batteries do little to change the situation in the long term. The lack of standardization does not allow, for example, to build stations for quick battery replacement. Such stations already exist, but in countries where the standard can be easily imposed by the government. Until competing companies reach an agreement on standardization, there will be no progress. I think it will happen earlier in the EU than here.

 

[670cc]

Maybe I didn't read carefully what was said here. But I didn't notice one thing: Would you rely on an EV as your only means of personal transportation today? It's a rhetorical question because I'm asking in general terms, not in individual cases.
In my case, it happened that for many decades I had only one vehicle at a time. For economic reasons, I did not have an additional vehicle that I could use as a substitute when necessary.
For about 50 years, I have been observing progress in implementing EVs in everyday life. Twenty-something years ago, I thought that something was finally starting to happen seriously. What I see today, it's not surprising that most people who would be interested in finally abandoning the ICEV are disappointed. Companies like Tesla will be fine. It's just like the manufacturers of Porsche and Lamborghini. They will still find willing buyers for a long time. In EVs, new types of batteries do little to change the situation in the long term. The lack of standardization does not allow, for example, to build stations for quick battery replacement. Such stations already exist, but in countries where the standard can be easily imposed by the government. Until competing companies reach an agreement on standardization, there will be no progress. I think it will happen earlier in the EU than here.

The concept of relying on a single vehicle for everything is foreign to me. For 45 years, there has always been three or more the vehicles in the household. Vehicles are specialized for their use. There is not a vehicle made, with any kind of propulsion sustem, that could suffice as my only means of transportation.

I know you weren’t asking about individual cases, but it made me think about it. If for some unforseen reason I was limited to one vehicle, I would need to change my lifestyle. In that case I think an EV could be that one vehicle.

From my point of view, I think the automobile EV rollout may be seeing some lack of interest because manufacturers are focusing on making models that are most profitable, not most practical, affordable, and accessible. As much as I like EVs, I will not be buying any 2024 models because none of them interest me.

 

[lootzyan]

...As much as I like EVs, I will not be buying any 2024 models because none of them interest me.

That's the point. I also wouldn't see any EV model that would interest me today. Toyota is finally entering the EV market with a new type of battery, and it may be interesting, but for now, their model is too expensive.
I currently have the latest model Accord Hybrid. Driving comfort is probably closest to the experience of a good EV. Honda has done a great job of soundproofing the cabin and equipping it with truly excellent suspension. But the biggest disappointment is the fuel economy at low temperatures. It's virtually the same as my previous 1999 2.4L Nissan Altima with manual transmission.

 

[davidc83]

My wife has 3 trucks and I have 1 car and 3 motorcycles. The trucks are 2 diesels and 1 hybrid. My car is a Prius. None of my motorcycles are ev. If the technology ever gets to the point of charging times are no longer than filling a tank with gas and a potty break, then I will consider an EV. I am not making my 13 hr drive to Indiana 20hrs or longer. By the way, Ford is losing money on their f150 EV. Report yesterday states they lose $36,000 on each F150 Lightning, and that was before the $13,000 drop in MSRP . You can now get a base XL F150 Lightning for $46,000 MSRP.

 

[670cc]

My wife has 3 trucks and I have 1 car and 3 motorcycles. The trucks are 2 diesels and 1 hybrid. My car is a Prius. None of my motorcycles are ev. If the technology ever gets to the point of charging times are no longer than filling a tank with gas and a potty break, then I will consider an EV. I am not making my 13 hr drive to Indiana 20hrs or longer. By the way, Ford is losing money on their f150 EV. Report yesterday states they lose $36,000 on each F150 Lightning, and that was before the $13,000 drop in MSRP . You can now get a base XL F150 Lightning for $46,000 MSRP.

I don’t know exactly how it works, but could Ford’s losses in EV sales be not such a bad thing, because selling EVs makes their CAFE numbers look better, and they can turn around and the sell more units of a profitable gas guzzling vehicle?

 

[mzflorida]

The concept of relying on a single vehicle for everything is foreign to me. For 45 years, there has always been three or more the vehicles in the household. Vehicles are specialized for their use. There is not a vehicle made, with any kind of propulsion sustem, that could suffice as my only means of transportation.

I know you weren’t asking about individual cases, but it made me think about it. If for some unforseen reason I was limited to one vehicle, I would need to change my lifestyle. In that case I think an EV could be that one vehicle.

From my point of view, I think the automobile EV rollout may be seeing some lack of interest because manufacturers are focusing on making models that are most profitable, not most practical, affordable, and accessible. As much as I like EVs, I will not be buying any 2024 models because none of them interest me.

I don’t know exactly how it works, but could Ford’s losses in EV sales be not such a bad thing, because selling EVs makes their CAFE numbers look better, and they can turn around and the sell more units of a profitable gas guzzling vehicle?

Well, for me this comes back to subsidies. Not one electric vehicle sold in America becomes affordable without subsidies. The numbers are indisputable. BYD, the Chinese manufacturer that is growing quicker than any other EV producer, is gaining market share because the Chinese government is funding them at a rate greater than the USA does for its domestic counterparts. So affordability is only achieved through taxpayer "crowdfunding" of vehicles which most people cannot afford. I think it is probably most important to call out that we are subsidizing an industry which will likely not achieve its intention of improving the environment and may in fact have detrimental and irreversible impacts globally. Not a great business model by any measure. And it is also very important to note that despite the approximate $50,000.00 in subsidies for each EV manufactured in America, they are still not profitable.

 

[mzflorida]

I don’t know exactly how it works, but could Ford’s losses in EV sales be not such a bad thing, because selling EVs makes their CAFE numbers look better, and they can turn around and the sell more units of a profitable gas guzzling vehicle?

That is a very good point. I've never considered that but would doubt that the offsets are significant enough to create meaningful profitability. But if this is the case, it would exacerbate the problem that EV production is trying to solve for in reducing greenhouse gas emissions (which I think is your point).

 

[670cc]

That is a very good point. I've never considered that but would doubt that the offsets are significant enough to create meaningful profitability. But if this is the case, it would exacerbate the problem that EV production is trying to solve for in reducing greenhouse gas emissions (which I think is your point).

GM proudly sold around 70,000 Bolts (EV and EUV) last year. They even lowered the price several thousand dollars for 2023, perhaps to increase sales volume. If they’re selling them at a “loss” (and I don’t know whether they are or not), yet they feel good about it, there must be other games at play in the background. Maybe playing with the CAFE system?

 

[670cc]

Well, for me this comes back to subsidies. Not one electric vehicle sold in America becomes affordable without subsidies. The numbers are indisputable. BYD, the Chinese manufacturer that is growing quicker than any other EV producer, is gaining market share because the Chinese government is funding them at a rate greater than the USA does for its domestic counterparts. So affordability is only achieved through taxpayer "crowdfunding" of vehicles which most people cannot afford. I think it is probably most important to call out that we are subsidizing an industry which will likely not achieve its intention of improving the environment and may in fact have detrimental and irreversible impacts globally. Not a great business model by any measure. And it is also very important to note that despite the approximate $50,000.00 in subsidies for each EV manufactured in America, they are still not profitable.

I don’t think the intention of the USA electric vehicle subsidies is to improve the environment. Based on the qualifications needed for the specific electric vehicle’s tax credit eligibility, the subsidy intention appears to be to boost the economy, boost corporate profits, and attempt to disadvantage foreign competitors. Any appearance of concern about the environment looks like smoke and mirrors. As I said earlier, if reducing environmental damage was the goal, the tax credit eligibility would be based on the vehicle’s efficiency and environmental friendliness, not the origin of materials and country of final assembly.

Lots of industries, organizations, and activities are government subsidized. I dislike a lot of them, some greatly, but I have no say-so.

Edit to add: As for affordability without subsidy, I don’t think a 2023 Chevrolet Bolt EV at MSRP $26,500 is really that unaffordable even before tax credit. I think there are plenty of ICE vehicles that cost more.

 

[mzflorida]

I thought this might be a good place to post this. At first glance this might seem kind of gross. It’s actually not. It goes to my idea that innovation is what solves problems.

Scientists make breakthrough discovery while experimenting with urine: 'We can reuse a very significant portion of the cobalt'

A team of scientists has discovered an unexpectedly effective method for EV battery recycling — and its derived from urine.

www.thecooldown.com

 

[dduelin]

That's the point. I also wouldn't see any EV model that would interest me today. Toyota is finally entering the EV market with a new type of battery, and it may be interesting, but for now, their model is too expensive.
I currently have the latest model Accord Hybrid. Driving comfort is probably closest to the experience of a good EV. Honda has done a great job of soundproofing the cabin and equipping it with truly excellent suspension. But the biggest disappointment is the fuel economy at low temperatures. It's virtually the same as my previous 1999 2.4L Nissan Altima with manual transmission.

I leased a 2017 Honda Accord Hybrid for three years and never reset one of the trip meters during the lease. It recorded overall 48+ mpg over three years and about 30,000 miles. I consider that very good considering it was a 3600 lb sedan loaded with every option Honda offered and we drove it just like all the family cars before it. It replaced a Honda CR-V that recorded 24+ mpg average over three years of ownership.

Barring the unforeseen I won't have to buy another vehicle for a while and I am watching EVs go through a period of what I consider growing pains.

I don't have a dog in the tribal conflicts underlying EV pro & con - I'm just watching what happens.